Bryne 1–0 Valerenga: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Bryne

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valerenga

A. Scriven 76'

7/13/2025

Eliteserien · Round 13Bryne Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bryne47%

×Draw24%

Valerenga28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BryneExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.24

Bryne

1.67

Valerenga

1.24

Bryne creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 25 away

1.66

creates per match

1.15

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bryne

1.66

Valerenga

1.15

allows per match

Bryne

1.33

Valerenga

1.67

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Bryne-0.28scores less

Valerenga-0.03on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bryne ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bryne or draw

72%

Bryne or Valerenga

76%

Draw or Valerenga

53%

Winning margin

Bryne wins by 2+

25%

Valerenga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bryne 1+ goals

81%

Bryne 2+ goals

50%

Bryne 3+ goals

23%

Valerenga 1+ goals

71%

Valerenga 2+ goals

35%

Valerenga 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bryne (draw refunded)

62%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bryne at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bryne attack 1.66 + Valerenga defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Valerenga attack 1.15 + Bryne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bryne scores more

47%

level

24%

Valerenga scores more

28%

Bryne at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bryne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Haahr

Bryne · D

7.7

Match Events

32'

Hakon Sjatil

46'

L. Qvigstad← A. Kryger

46'

V. Hedenstad← H. Sjatil

46'

E. Sorensen← C. Lange

46'

M. Brajanac← M. Rijks

70'

M. Riisnaes← F. Thorvaldsen

72'

Sanel Bojadžić

72'

J. Tveita← S. Bojadzic

76'

A. Scriven↳ D. Moreira

89'

Alfred Scriven

90'

S. Norheim← L. Sodal

90+3'

K. Haland← D. Moreira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BryneValerenga

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots12

1.58Expected Goals (xG)1.12

6Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots12

6On Target4

5Off Target5

4Blocked3

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

398Total Passes394

315Accurate Passes318

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0