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Bryne vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Bryne
Bryne
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rosenborg
Rosenborg
D. Moreira 90'
T. Nemcik 62' (OG)
D. Duris 86', 30'
10/18/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 25Bryne Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bryne47%
×Draw24%
Rosenborg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bryne
1.73
Rosenborg
1.33

Bryne creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bryne
1.66
Rosenborg
1.33

allows per match

Bryne
1.33
Rosenborg
1.81

finishing

Bryne-0.28scores less
Rosenborg-0.07on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bryne ↓

Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bryne or draw
70%
Bryne or Rosenborg
76%
Draw or Rosenborg
53%

Winning margin

Bryne wins by 2+
25%
Rosenborg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bryne 1+ goals
82%
Bryne 2+ goals
52%
Bryne 3+ goals
25%
Rosenborg 1+ goals
74%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
38%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bryne (draw refunded)
61%
Rosenborg (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bryne at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bryne attack 1.66 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rosenborg attack 1.33 + Bryne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bryne scores more
47%
level
24%
Rosenborg scores more
30%

Bryne at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bryne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
N. StrunckBryneBryne · M
8.3

Match Events

4'
Magnus Grødem
29'
Santeri Väänänen
30'
D. Duris↳ S. Nordli
62'
J. Reitan-Sunde← S. Nordli
62'
T. NemcikOwn goal
74'
Mikkel Konradsen Ceide
75'
Ole Selnaes
86'
D. Duris
87'
C. Landu-Landu← L. Sodal
87'
J. Tveita← H. Larsen
90+7'
K. Haland← M. Grodem
90'
D. Moreira↳ A. Scriven

Possession

52%Bryne

Shots

17Bryne

Pass accuracy

50%Bryne

Statistics

BryneRosenborg
Overview
52%Possession48%
17Total Shots13
1.10Expected Goals (xG)1.36
7Corners6
15Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots13
8On Target5
4Off Target6
5Blocked2
11Inside Box8
6Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
438Total Passes397
347Accurate Passes311
79%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
15Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Eliteserien: Bryne 2–2 Rosenborg

Bryne and Rosenborg drew 2-2 in Eliteserien on October 18, 2025.

Goals: D. Duris (30', 86'), T. Nemcik (62' o.g.), D. Moreira (90').

Bryne controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Bryne Stadion in Bryne.