Bryne 1–1 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

Bryne

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kristiansund BK

9/24/2023

1. Division · Round 24Bryne Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bryne39%

×Draw24%

Kristiansund BK37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BryneExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.53

Bryne

1.56

Kristiansund BK

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 16 away

1.62

creates per match

1.94

1.12

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bryne

1.62

Kristiansund BK

1.94

allows per match

Bryne

1.12

Kristiansund BK

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bryne+0.00on par

Kristiansund BK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bryne ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bryne or draw

63%

Bryne or Kristiansund BK

76%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

61%

Winning margin

Bryne wins by 2+

19%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bryne 1+ goals

79%

Bryne 2+ goals

46%

Bryne 3+ goals

21%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

78%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

45%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bryne (draw refunded)

51%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bryne at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bryne attack 1.62 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kristiansund BK attack 1.94 + Bryne defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bryne scores more

39%

level

24%

Kristiansund BK scores more

37%

Bryne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bryne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff