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Poprad vs Šamorín — 2. liga 2019

Poprad
Poprad
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Šamorín
Šamorín
4/19/20192. liga2. liga · Round 24Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Poprad34%
×Draw22%
Šamorín44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poprad
1.68
Šamorín
1.94

Šamorín creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 98 away

creates per match

Poprad
1.48
Šamorín
1.18

allows per match

Poprad
2.70
Šamorín
1.87

finishing

Poprad+0.00on par
Šamorín+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad ↓

Šamorín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Poprad or draw
56%
Poprad or Šamorín
78%
Draw or Šamorín
66%

Winning margin

Poprad wins by 2+
17%
Šamorín wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Poprad 1+ goals
81%
Poprad 2+ goals
50%
Poprad 3+ goals
24%
Šamorín 1+ goals
86%
Šamorín 2+ goals
58%
Šamorín 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Poprad (draw refunded)
43%
Šamorín (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.70 · 23 matches

Šamorín away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad attack 1.48 + Šamorín defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

Šamorín attack 1.18 + Poprad defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Poprad scores more
34%
level
22%
Šamorín scores more
44%

Šamorín at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Šamorín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poprad vs Šamorín

Poprad beat Šamorín 3-2 in 2. liga on April 19, 2019.

The match was played at Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad in Poprad.