Brusque 3–1 Vila Nova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Brusque

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vila Nova

Keké 86'

Diego Mathias 50'

Dentinho 1'

Elias 83'

9/14/2024

Serie B · Round 26Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Brusque42%

×Draw31%

Vila Nova27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrusqueExpected goals in this matchVila Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.82

Brusque

1.10

Vila Nova

0.82

Brusque creates 34% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 122 away

0.93

creates per match

0.90

0.74

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Brusque

0.93

Vila Nova

0.90

allows per match

Brusque

0.74

Vila Nova

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brusque+0.00on par

Vila Nova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Vila Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Brusque or draw

73%

Brusque or Vila Nova

69%

Draw or Vila Nova

58%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+

17%

Vila Nova wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals

67%

Brusque 2+ goals

30%

Brusque 3+ goals

10%

Vila Nova 1+ goals

56%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

20%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)

61%

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.28 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 0.93 + Vila Nova defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Vila Nova attack 0.90 + Brusque defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brusque scores more

42%

level

31%

Vila Nova scores more

27%

Brusque at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Diego Mathias

Brusque · M

9.0

Match Events

-5'

Éverton Alemão

1'

Dentinho↳ Paulinho

4'

Ianson← Éverton Alemão

23'

29'

38'

46'

50'

50'

Diego Mathias↳ Guilherme Queiróz

60'

Emerson Urso← Henrique Almeida

60'

Denilson Junior← Júnior Todinho

63'

Agustín González

66'

Jhan Pool Torres

68'

Diego Tavares← Dentinho

68'

Madison← A. González

70'

Keké← Guilherme Queiróz

74'

João Lucas← Rhuan Ferreira

74'

Gabriel Silva← Cristiano

83'

Elias↳ Alesson

85'

Madison

86'

Keké↳ Diego Mathias

89'

João Lucas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrusqueVila

Overview

33%Possession67%

6Total Shots5

1Corners8

13Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots5

3On Target2

1Off Target3

2Blocked0

3Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

33%Possession67%

266Total Passes544

186Accurate Passes450

70%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0