Brusque vs São Bernardo — Serie C 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Brusque38%
São Bernardo30%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Brusque creates 16% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No63
- Yes37
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Brusque ↓
Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Brusque at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches
São Bernardo away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Brusque attack 1.46 + São Bernardo defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.02
São Bernardo attack 0.67 + Brusque defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Brusque at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Caxias
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
LondrinaSão BernardoBrusque
Guarani Campinas
Floresta
Confiança
Ypiranga-RS
Maringá
Ituano
Botafogo PB
Figueirense
Anápolis
AO Itabaiana
CSA
ABC
Retrô
TombenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Brusque host São Bernardo on Monday, 26 May 2025 at 22:30. The match is part of the Serie C 2025/2026 season.
Serie C: Brusque 1–0 São Bernardo
Brusque beat São Bernardo 1-0 in Serie C on May 26, 2025.
Goals: Diego Mathias (12').
The match was played at Estádio Augusto Bauer in Brusque.