Brusque 1–2 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Brusque

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Nautico Recife

Diego Jardel 38' (pen)

Jean Carlos 61'

Wallace 59' (OG)

6/4/2022

Serie B · Round 10Estádio Augusto Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Brusque48%

×Draw30%

Nautico Recife22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrusqueExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.74

Brusque

1.25

Nautico Recife

0.74

Brusque creates 69% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 77 away

0.93

creates per match

0.74

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Brusque

0.93

Nautico Recife

0.74

allows per match

Brusque

0.74

Nautico Recife

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brusque+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Brusque or draw

78%

Brusque or Nautico Recife

70%

Draw or Nautico Recife

52%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+

22%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals

71%

Brusque 2+ goals

36%

Brusque 3+ goals

13%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

52%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

17%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)

69%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 0.93 + Nautico Recife defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nautico Recife attack 0.74 + Brusque defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brusque scores more

48%

level

30%

Nautico Recife scores more

22%

Brusque at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jean Carlos

Nautico Recife · M

7.7

Match Events

38'

Diego JardelPenalty

46'

Crislan← Júnior Todinho

46'

Ewandro← Ralph

55'

Álvaro← Diego Jardel

55'

Matheus Trindade← Zé Mateus

59'

WallaceOwn goal

61'

Jean Carlos↳ Ewandro

63'

Jailson← Alex Ruan

64'

Luiz Antônio← Rodolfo Potiguar

71'

73'

80'

82'

88'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrusqueNautico

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots10

3Corners6

13Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target3

5Off Target5

5Blocked2

5Inside Box3

8Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

447Total Passes332

350Accurate Passes235

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls18

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Brusque vs Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife beat Brusque 2-1 in Serie B on June 4, 2022.

Goals: Diego Jardel (38' pen), Wallace (59' o.g.), Jean Carlos (61').

Brusque controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Augusto Bauer in Brusque, Santa Catarina.

Brusque vs Nautico Recife — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Brusque vs Nautico Recife