Brusque 4–0 Confiança: Result & Stats | Serie C

Brusque

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Confiança

Diego Mathias 90+5'

Alex Ruan 53'

Guilherme Queiróz 50', 39' (pen)

7/15/2023

Serie C · Round 13Estádio Augusto Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Brusque52%

×Draw27%

Confiança21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrusqueExpected goals in this matchConfiança

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.83

Brusque

1.46

Confiança

0.83

Brusque creates 76% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

1.46

creates per match

0.58

1.08

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Brusque

1.46

Confiança

0.58

allows per match

Brusque

1.08

Confiança

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brusque+0.00on par

Confiança+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Confiança →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Brusque or draw

79%

Brusque or Confiança

73%

Draw or Confiança

48%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+

26%

Confiança wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals

77%

Brusque 2+ goals

43%

Brusque 3+ goals

18%

Confiança 1+ goals

56%

Confiança 2+ goals

20%

Confiança 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)

71%

Confiança (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Confiança away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 1.46 + Confiança defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Confiança attack 0.58 + Brusque defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brusque scores more

52%

level

27%

Confiança scores more

21%

Brusque at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Toty

37'

Bruno Camilo

38'

Adalberto

39'

Guilherme QueirózPenalty

45+3'

46'

50'

53'

58'

Betinho← Bruno Camilo

64'

Cesinha← Riquelmo

64'

Rafael← Dione

68'

Thiago Henrique← Jhemerson

73'

Rafael

77'

Diego Mathias← Alex Ruan

77'

Lucas Poletto← Diego Tavares

77'

Olávio← Guilherme Queiróz

80'

Diego Cardoso← Ricardo Bueno

80'

Willians Santana← Edison Negueba

81'

Ianson← Everton Bala

89'

Diego Cardoso

90+5'

Diego Mathias

Brusque

Confiança

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Queiróz

▼

Tavares

▼

Bala

Manager: Luizinho Lopes

68'▲Thiago Henrique←▼Jhemerson

77'▲Diego Mathias←▼Alex Ruan

77'▲Lucas Poletto←▼Diego Tavares

77'▲Olávio←▼Guilherme Queiróz

81'▲Ianson←▼Everton Bala

Brusque substitutes

HenriqueMathiasPolettoOlávioIansonCarneiroAngeloHenriquePedocaVasconcelosTotyAnderson

Manager: Vinícius Eutrópio

58'▲Betinho←▼Bruno Camilo

64'▲Cesinha←▼Riquelmo

64'▲Rafael←▼Dione

80'▲Diego Cardoso←▼Ricardo Bueno

80'▲Willians Santana←▼Edison Negueba

Confiança substitutes

BetinhoCesinhaRafaelCardosoSantanaHenzFabianoRobersonJúnior

Serie C: Brusque 4–0 Confiança

Brusque beat Confiança 4-0 in Serie C on July 15, 2023.

Goals: Guilherme Queiróz (39' pen, 50'), Alex Ruan (53'), Diego Mathias (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Augusto Bauer in Brusque, Santa Catarina.

Brusque vs Confiança — Serie C 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Brusque 4–0 Confiança