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Brusque U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Brasileiro U20 B 2025

Brusque U20
Brusque U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
Unknown 19'
Unknown 82', 60', 55'
4/2/2025Brasileiro U20 BBrasileiro U20 B · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brusque U2011%
×Draw17%
Ponte Preta U2072%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusque U20
0.75
Ponte Preta U20
2.30

Ponte Preta U20 creates 207% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Brusque U20
0.50
Ponte Preta U20
1.60

allows per match

Brusque U20
3.00
Ponte Preta U20
1.00

finishing

Brusque U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–213%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brusque U20 or draw
28%
Brusque U20 or Ponte Preta U20
83%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
89%

Winning margin

Brusque U20 wins by 2+
3%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Brusque U20 1+ goals
53%
Brusque U20 2+ goals
17%
Brusque U20 3+ goals
4%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
90%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
67%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Brusque U20 (draw refunded)
13%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque U20 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque U20 attack 0.50 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.60 + Brusque U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Brusque U20 scores more
11%
level
17%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
72%

Ponte Preta U20 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
55'
60'
82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brusque U20 vs Ponte Preta U20

Ponte Preta U20 beat Brusque U20 3-1 in Brasileiro U20 B on April 2, 2025.

Goals: ? (19', 55', 60', 82').

The match was played at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz in Itajaí, Santa Catarina.