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Brusque U20 vs Internacional SC U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Brusque U20
Brusque U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Internacional SC U20
Internacional SC U20
4/26/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 7CT Brusque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Brusque U2075%
×Draw13%
Internacional SC U2011%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusque U20
3.21
Internacional SC U20
1.20

Brusque U20 creates 168% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 10 away

creates per match

Brusque U20
1.22
Internacional SC U20
0.40

allows per match

Brusque U20
2.00
Internacional SC U20
5.20

finishing

Brusque U20+0.00on par
Internacional SC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque U20 ↓

Internacional SC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Brusque U20 or draw
89%
Brusque U20 or Internacional SC U20
87%
Draw or Internacional SC U20
25%

Winning margin

Brusque U20 wins by 2+
56%
Internacional SC U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Brusque U20 1+ goals
96%
Brusque U20 2+ goals
82%
Brusque U20 3+ goals
60%
Internacional SC U20 1+ goals
70%
Internacional SC U20 2+ goals
34%
Internacional SC U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brusque U20 (draw refunded)
87%
Internacional SC U20 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque U20 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

Internacional SC U20 away — creates 0.40, concedes 5.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque U20 attack 1.22 + Internacional SC U20 defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 3.21

Internacional SC U20 attack 0.40 + Brusque U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Brusque U20 scores more
75%
level
13%
Internacional SC U20 scores more
11%

Brusque U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Brusque U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense U20: Brusque U20 2–1 Internacional SC U20

Brusque U20 beat Internacional SC U20 2-1 in Catarinense U20 on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at CT Brusque in Brusque, Santa Catarina.