Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brusaporto vs Portogruaro — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Brusaporto
Brusaporto
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Portogruaro
Portogruaro
L. Maffioletti 30'
C. Silenzi 16'
A. Corti 61' (pen)
10/20/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 9Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brusaporto50%
×Draw25%
Portogruaro25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusaporto
1.62
Portogruaro
1.06

Brusaporto creates 53% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

Brusaporto
1.53
Portogruaro
0.96

allows per match

Brusaporto
1.16
Portogruaro
1.71

finishing

Brusaporto+0.00on par
Portogruaro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusaporto ↓

Portogruaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brusaporto or draw
75%
Brusaporto or Portogruaro
75%
Draw or Portogruaro
50%

Winning margin

Brusaporto wins by 2+
26%
Portogruaro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brusaporto 1+ goals
80%
Brusaporto 2+ goals
48%
Brusaporto 3+ goals
22%
Portogruaro 1+ goals
65%
Portogruaro 2+ goals
29%
Portogruaro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brusaporto (draw refunded)
67%
Portogruaro (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusaporto at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Portogruaro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusaporto attack 1.53 + Portogruaro defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.62

Portogruaro attack 0.96 + Brusaporto defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Brusaporto scores more
50%
level
25%
Portogruaro scores more
25%

Brusaporto at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Brusaporto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
16'
C. Silenzi
30'
L. Maffioletti
61'
A. CortiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Brusaporto 2–1 Portogruaro

Brusaporto beat Portogruaro 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 20, 2024.

Goals: C. Silenzi (16'), L. Maffioletti (30'), A. Corti (61' pen).

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto in Brusaporto.