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Brusaporto vs Montecchio Maggiore — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Brusaporto
Brusaporto
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
12/22/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 19Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brusaporto43%
×Draw25%
Montecchio Maggiore32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusaporto
1.49
Montecchio Maggiore
1.24

Brusaporto creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

creates per match

Brusaporto
1.53
Montecchio Maggiore
1.32

allows per match

Brusaporto
1.16
Montecchio Maggiore
1.45

finishing

Brusaporto+0.00on par
Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusaporto ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brusaporto or draw
68%
Brusaporto or Montecchio Maggiore
75%
Draw or Montecchio Maggiore
57%

Winning margin

Brusaporto wins by 2+
21%
Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Brusaporto 1+ goals
77%
Brusaporto 2+ goals
44%
Brusaporto 3+ goals
19%
Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
71%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
35%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Brusaporto (draw refunded)
58%
Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusaporto at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusaporto attack 1.53 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Brusaporto defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brusaporto scores more
43%
level
25%
Montecchio Maggiore scores more
32%

Brusaporto at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brusaporto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Brusaporto 2–1 Montecchio Maggiore

Brusaporto beat Montecchio Maggiore 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto in Brusaporto.