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Brusaporto vs Lavis — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Brusaporto
Brusaporto
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lavis
Lavis
3/9/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brusaporto67%
×Draw19%
Lavis14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusaporto
2.19
Lavis
0.90

Brusaporto creates 143% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Brusaporto
1.53
Lavis
0.63

allows per match

Brusaporto
1.16
Lavis
2.84

finishing

Brusaporto+0.00on par
Lavis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusaporto ↓

Lavis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brusaporto or draw
86%
Brusaporto or Lavis
81%
Draw or Lavis
33%

Winning margin

Brusaporto wins by 2+
43%
Lavis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Brusaporto 1+ goals
89%
Brusaporto 2+ goals
64%
Brusaporto 3+ goals
37%
Lavis 1+ goals
59%
Lavis 2+ goals
23%
Lavis 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brusaporto (draw refunded)
82%
Lavis (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusaporto at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Lavis away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusaporto attack 1.53 + Lavis defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.19

Lavis attack 0.63 + Brusaporto defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Brusaporto scores more
67%
level
19%
Lavis scores more
14%

Brusaporto at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Brusaporto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brusaporto vs Lavis

Brusaporto beat Lavis 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto in Brusaporto.