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Brusaporto vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Brusaporto
Brusaporto
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
T. H. Olonisakin 10'
9/15/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 2Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brusaporto39%
×Draw26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusaporto
1.38
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

Brusaporto
1.53
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Brusaporto
1.16
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Brusaporto+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusaporto ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brusaporto or draw
65%
Brusaporto or Dolomiti Bellunesi
74%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
61%

Winning margin

Brusaporto wins by 2+
18%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Brusaporto 1+ goals
75%
Brusaporto 2+ goals
40%
Brusaporto 3+ goals
16%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
73%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
38%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Brusaporto (draw refunded)
52%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusaporto at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusaporto attack 1.53 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Brusaporto defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brusaporto scores more
39%
level
26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
35%

Brusaporto at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brusaporto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
T. H. Olonisakin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Brusaporto 0–1 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Brusaporto 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 15, 2024.

Goals: T. H. Olonisakin (10').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto in Brusaporto.