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Brusaporto vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Brusaporto
Brusaporto
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
G. Piacentini 66'
A. Piccinin 59'
F. Furlan 37' (pen)
10/27/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 11Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brusaporto42%
×Draw27%
Cjarlins Muzane31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusaporto
1.38
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

Brusaporto creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Brusaporto
1.53
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

Brusaporto
1.16
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

Brusaporto+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusaporto ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Brusaporto or draw
69%
Brusaporto or Cjarlins Muzane
73%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
58%

Winning margin

Brusaporto wins by 2+
20%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Brusaporto 1+ goals
75%
Brusaporto 2+ goals
40%
Brusaporto 3+ goals
16%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
68%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
32%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brusaporto (draw refunded)
57%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusaporto at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusaporto attack 1.53 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Brusaporto defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brusaporto scores more
42%
level
27%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
31%

Brusaporto at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brusaporto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
F. FurlanPenalty
59'
A. Piccinin
66'
G. Piacentini

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Brusaporto 2–1 Cjarlins Muzane

Brusaporto beat Cjarlins Muzane 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 27, 2024.

Goals: F. Furlan (37' pen), A. Piccinin (59'), G. Piacentini (66').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto in Brusaporto.