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Brusaporto vs Bassano Virtus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Brusaporto
Brusaporto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
M. Vassallo 67' (pen)
F. Raicevic 52'
G. De Leo 29'
2/23/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 29Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brusaporto40%
×Draw28%
Bassano Virtus31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusaporto
1.23
Bassano Virtus
1.04

Brusaporto creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

creates per match

Brusaporto
1.53
Bassano Virtus
0.92

allows per match

Brusaporto
1.16
Bassano Virtus
0.92

finishing

Brusaporto+0.00on par
Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusaporto ↓

Bassano Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Brusaporto or draw
69%
Brusaporto or Bassano Virtus
72%
Draw or Bassano Virtus
60%

Winning margin

Brusaporto wins by 2+
18%
Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brusaporto 1+ goals
71%
Brusaporto 2+ goals
35%
Brusaporto 3+ goals
13%
Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
65%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
28%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brusaporto (draw refunded)
57%
Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusaporto at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusaporto attack 1.53 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Brusaporto defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brusaporto scores more
40%
level
28%
Bassano Virtus scores more
31%

Brusaporto at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brusaporto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
G. De Leo
52'
F. Raicevic
67'
M. VassalloPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brusaporto vs Bassano Virtus

Bassano Virtus beat Brusaporto 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 23, 2025.

Goals: G. De Leo (29'), F. Raicevic (52'), M. Vassallo (67' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Rossoni in Ciserano.