Brusaporto 2–1 Adriese: Result & Stats

Brusaporto

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Adriese

L. Maffioletti 81'

C. Silenzi 33'

R. Serena 60'

10/6/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 7Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brusaporto42%

×Draw26%

Adriese33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrusaportoExpected goals in this matchAdriese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.26

Brusaporto

1.45

Adriese

1.26

Brusaporto creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

1.53

creates per match

1.36

1.16

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Brusaporto

1.53

Adriese

1.36

allows per match

Brusaporto

1.16

Adriese

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brusaporto+0.00on par

Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusaporto ↓

Adriese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Brusaporto or draw

67%

Brusaporto or Adriese

74%

Draw or Adriese

58%

Winning margin

Brusaporto wins by 2+

20%

Adriese wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Brusaporto 1+ goals

77%

Brusaporto 2+ goals

42%

Brusaporto 3+ goals

18%

Adriese 1+ goals

72%

Adriese 2+ goals

36%

Adriese 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Brusaporto (draw refunded)

56%

Adriese (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusaporto at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusaporto attack 1.53 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Adriese attack 1.36 + Brusaporto defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brusaporto scores more

42%

level

26%

Adriese scores more

33%

Brusaporto at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brusaporto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

C. Silenzi

60'

R. Serena

81'

L. Maffioletti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff