Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brunswick City vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Brunswick City
Brunswick City
CANC
05:00
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
7/24/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 17Dunstan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Brunswick City38%
×Draw23%
Pascoe Vale39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brunswick City
1.66
Pascoe Vale
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 31 away

creates per match

Brunswick City
1.74
Pascoe Vale
1.74

allows per match

Brunswick City
1.64
Pascoe Vale
1.58

finishing

Brunswick City+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunswick City ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Brunswick City or draw
61%
Brunswick City or Pascoe Vale
77%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
62%

Winning margin

Brunswick City wins by 2+
19%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Brunswick City 1+ goals
81%
Brunswick City 2+ goals
49%
Brunswick City 3+ goals
23%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
82%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
50%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Brunswick City (draw refunded)
49%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunswick City at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunswick City attack 1.74 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Pascoe Vale attack 1.74 + Brunswick City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brunswick City scores more
38%
level
23%
Pascoe Vale scores more
39%

Pascoe Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brunswick City face Pascoe Vale (Victoria NPL 2)

Victoria NPL 2 returns with Brunswick City hosting Pascoe Vale. Match starts July 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Brunswick City host Pascoe Vale at Dunstan Reserve.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.