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Brunswick City vs North Geelong Warriors — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Brunswick City
Brunswick City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
5/25/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 15Dunstan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Brunswick City43%
×Draw22%
North Geelong Warriors35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brunswick City
1.82
North Geelong Warriors
1.62

Brunswick City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 40 away

creates per match

Brunswick City
1.74
North Geelong Warriors
1.60

allows per match

Brunswick City
1.64
North Geelong Warriors
1.90

finishing

Brunswick City+0.00on par
North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunswick City ↓

North Geelong Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Brunswick City or draw
65%
Brunswick City or North Geelong Warriors
78%
Draw or North Geelong Warriors
57%

Winning margin

Brunswick City wins by 2+
23%
North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Brunswick City 1+ goals
84%
Brunswick City 2+ goals
54%
Brunswick City 3+ goals
27%
North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
80%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
48%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Brunswick City (draw refunded)
55%
North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunswick City at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunswick City attack 1.74 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.82

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.60 + Brunswick City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brunswick City scores more
43%
level
22%
North Geelong Warriors scores more
35%

Brunswick City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brunswick City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brunswick City vs North Geelong Warriors

North Geelong Warriors beat Brunswick City 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Dunstan Reserve in Brunswick West.