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Brunswick City vs Moreland Zebras — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Brunswick City
Brunswick City
FT
2 – 1
Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
3/20/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 1Dunstan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Brunswick City39%
×Draw24%
Moreland Zebras37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brunswick City
1.57
Moreland Zebras
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 32 away

creates per match

Brunswick City
1.74
Moreland Zebras
1.44

allows per match

Brunswick City
1.64
Moreland Zebras
1.41

finishing

Brunswick City+0.00on par
Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunswick City ↓

Moreland Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Brunswick City or draw
63%
Brunswick City or Moreland Zebras
76%
Draw or Moreland Zebras
61%

Winning margin

Brunswick City wins by 2+
19%
Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Brunswick City 1+ goals
79%
Brunswick City 2+ goals
46%
Brunswick City 3+ goals
21%
Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
79%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
45%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Brunswick City (draw refunded)
51%
Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunswick City at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunswick City attack 1.74 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Brunswick City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brunswick City scores more
39%
level
24%
Moreland Zebras scores more
37%

Brunswick City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brunswick City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Brunswick City 2–1 Moreland Zebras

Brunswick City beat Moreland Zebras 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Dunstan Reserve in Brunswick West.