Brunswick City 1–2 Bentleigh Greens: Result & Stats

Brunswick City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bentleigh Greens

8/17/2024

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 26Dunstan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Brunswick City39%

×Draw24%

Bentleigh Greens37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brunswick CityExpected goals in this matchBentleigh Greens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.53

Brunswick City

1.58

Bentleigh Greens

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 26 away

1.74

creates per match

1.42

1.64

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Brunswick City

1.74

Bentleigh Greens

1.42

allows per match

Brunswick City

1.64

Bentleigh Greens

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brunswick City+0.00on par

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunswick City ↓

Bentleigh Greens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Brunswick City or draw

63%

Brunswick City or Bentleigh Greens

76%

Draw or Bentleigh Greens

61%

Winning margin

Brunswick City wins by 2+

19%

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Brunswick City 1+ goals

79%

Brunswick City 2+ goals

47%

Brunswick City 3+ goals

21%

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals

78%

Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals

45%

Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Brunswick City (draw refunded)

51%

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunswick City at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunswick City attack 1.74 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Brunswick City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brunswick City scores more

39%

level

24%

Bentleigh Greens scores more

37%

Brunswick City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brunswick City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff