Brunninghausen 3–2 Vreden: Result & Stats

Brunninghausen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Vreden

8/13/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 1Stadion am Hombruchsfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Brunninghausen37%

×Draw22%

Vreden41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrunninghausenExpected goals in this matchVreden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.85

Brunninghausen

1.75

Vreden

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 90 away

1.59

creates per match

1.46

2.24

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Brunninghausen

1.59

Vreden

1.46

allows per match

Brunninghausen

2.24

Vreden

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brunninghausen+0.00on par

Vreden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunninghausen ↓

Vreden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Brunninghausen or draw

59%

Brunninghausen or Vreden

78%

Draw or Vreden

63%

Winning margin

Brunninghausen wins by 2+

19%

Vreden wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Brunninghausen 1+ goals

83%

Brunninghausen 2+ goals

52%

Brunninghausen 3+ goals

25%

Vreden 1+ goals

84%

Vreden 2+ goals

55%

Vreden 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Brunninghausen (draw refunded)

47%

Vreden (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunninghausen at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Vreden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunninghausen attack 1.59 + Vreden defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vreden attack 1.46 + Brunninghausen defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brunninghausen scores more

37%

level

22%

Vreden scores more

41%

Vreden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff