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Brunninghausen vs Victoria Clarholz — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Brunninghausen
Brunninghausen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
4/28/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 30Stadion am Hombruchsfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Brunninghausen37%
×Draw23%
Victoria Clarholz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brunninghausen
1.69
Victoria Clarholz
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 89 away

creates per match

Brunninghausen
1.59
Victoria Clarholz
1.28

allows per match

Brunninghausen
2.24
Victoria Clarholz
1.79

finishing

Brunninghausen+0.00on par
Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunninghausen ↓

Victoria Clarholz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Brunninghausen or draw
60%
Brunninghausen or Victoria Clarholz
77%
Draw or Victoria Clarholz
63%

Winning margin

Brunninghausen wins by 2+
19%
Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Brunninghausen 1+ goals
82%
Brunninghausen 2+ goals
50%
Brunninghausen 3+ goals
24%
Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
83%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
52%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Brunninghausen (draw refunded)
48%
Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunninghausen at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunninghausen attack 1.59 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.69

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Brunninghausen defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brunninghausen scores more
37%
level
23%
Victoria Clarholz scores more
40%

Victoria Clarholz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brunninghausen vs Victoria Clarholz

Victoria Clarholz beat Brunninghausen 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion am Hombruchsfeld in Dortmund.