Brunninghausen 4–4 Sportfreunde Siegen

Brunninghausen

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Sportfreunde Siegen

9/17/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 6Stadion am Hombruchsfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Brunninghausen29%

×Draw22%

Sportfreunde Siegen49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrunninghausenExpected goals in this matchSportfreunde Siegen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.02

Brunninghausen

1.52

Sportfreunde Siegen

2.02

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 72 away

1.59

creates per match

1.79

2.24

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Brunninghausen

1.59

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.79

allows per match

Brunninghausen

2.24

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brunninghausen+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunninghausen ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Brunninghausen or draw

51%

Brunninghausen or Sportfreunde Siegen

78%

Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen

71%

Winning margin

Brunninghausen wins by 2+

13%

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Brunninghausen 1+ goals

78%

Brunninghausen 2+ goals

45%

Brunninghausen 3+ goals

20%

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals

87%

Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals

60%

Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Brunninghausen (draw refunded)

37%

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunninghausen at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunninghausen attack 1.59 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + Brunninghausen defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brunninghausen scores more

29%

level

22%

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more

49%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff