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Brunninghausen vs Erkenschwick — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Brunninghausen
Brunninghausen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Erkenschwick
Erkenschwick
3/10/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 22Stadion am Hombruchsfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Brunninghausen37%
×Draw22%
Erkenschwick41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brunninghausen
1.75
Erkenschwick
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Brunninghausen
1.59
Erkenschwick
1.47

allows per match

Brunninghausen
2.24
Erkenschwick
1.91

finishing

Brunninghausen+0.00on par
Erkenschwick+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunninghausen ↓

Erkenschwick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Brunninghausen or draw
59%
Brunninghausen or Erkenschwick
78%
Draw or Erkenschwick
63%

Winning margin

Brunninghausen wins by 2+
19%
Erkenschwick wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Brunninghausen 1+ goals
83%
Brunninghausen 2+ goals
52%
Brunninghausen 3+ goals
25%
Erkenschwick 1+ goals
84%
Erkenschwick 2+ goals
55%
Erkenschwick 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Brunninghausen (draw refunded)
47%
Erkenschwick (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunninghausen at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Erkenschwick away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunninghausen attack 1.59 + Erkenschwick defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

Erkenschwick attack 1.47 + Brunninghausen defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brunninghausen scores more
37%
level
22%
Erkenschwick scores more
41%

Erkenschwick at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Erkenschwick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brunninghausen vs Erkenschwick

Erkenschwick beat Brunninghausen 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion am Hombruchsfeld in Dortmund.