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Brunei U19 vs Vietnam U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Brunei U19
Brunei U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Vietnam U19
Vietnam U19
N. Viet Duc 62'
N. Tan Gian 59', 33'
Phi Chau Ha 11'
7/6/2022AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 3Stadion Patriot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Brunei U194%
×Draw8%
Vietnam U1988%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brunei U19
0.83
Vietnam U19
3.96

Vietnam U19 creates 377% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Brunei U19
0.00
Vietnam U19
3.17

allows per match

Brunei U19
4.75
Vietnam U19
1.67

finishing

Brunei U19+0.00on par
Vietnam U19+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunei U19 ↓

Vietnam U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–310%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Brunei U19 or draw
12%
Brunei U19 or Vietnam U19
92%
Draw or Vietnam U19
96%

Winning margin

Brunei U19 wins by 2+
1%
Vietnam U19 wins by 2+
74%

Team goals

Brunei U19 1+ goals
56%
Brunei U19 2+ goals
20%
Brunei U19 3+ goals
5%
Vietnam U19 1+ goals
98%
Vietnam U19 2+ goals
89%
Vietnam U19 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Brunei U19 (draw refunded)
4%
Vietnam U19 (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunei U19 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

Vietnam U19 away — creates 3.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunei U19 attack 0.00 + Vietnam U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Vietnam U19 attack 3.17 + Brunei U19 defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Brunei U19 scores more
4%
level
8%
Vietnam U19 scores more
88%

Vietnam U19 at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Vietnam U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Phi Chau Ha
33'
N. Tan Gian
59'
N. Tan Gian
62'
N. Viet Duc
78'
H. Tung Han

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brunei U19 vs Vietnam U19

Vietnam U19 beat Brunei U19 4-0 in AFF U19 Championship on July 6, 2022.

Goals: Phi Chau Ha (11'), N. Tan Gian (33', 59'), N. Viet Duc (62').

The match was played at Stadion Patriot in Bekasi.