Brumunddal 6–0 Ullensaker / Kisa II: Result & Stats

Brumunddal

FT

6 – 0

Ullensaker / Kisa II

9/20/2021

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 7SH-banen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brumunddal84%

×Draw10%

Ullensaker / Kisa II5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrumunddalExpected goals in this matchUllensaker / Kisa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

0.67

Brumunddal

3.13

Ullensaker / Kisa II

0.67

Brumunddal creates 367% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

3.43

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Brumunddal

3.43

Ullensaker / Kisa II

0.33

allows per match

Brumunddal

1.00

Ullensaker / Kisa II

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brumunddal+0.00on par

Ullensaker / Kisa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brumunddal ↓

Ullensaker / Kisa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Brumunddal or draw

95%

Brumunddal or Ullensaker / Kisa II

90%

Draw or Ullensaker / Kisa II

16%

Winning margin

Brumunddal wins by 2+

66%

Ullensaker / Kisa II wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Brumunddal 1+ goals

95%

Brumunddal 2+ goals

81%

Brumunddal 3+ goals

59%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 1+ goals

49%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 2+ goals

15%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Brumunddal (draw refunded)

94%

Ullensaker / Kisa II (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brumunddal at home — creates 3.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Ullensaker / Kisa II away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brumunddal attack 3.43 + Ullensaker / Kisa II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.13

Ullensaker / Kisa II attack 0.33 + Brumunddal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Brumunddal scores more

84%

level

10%

Ullensaker / Kisa II scores more

5%

Brumunddal at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Brumunddal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff