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Brumunddal vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Brumunddal
Brumunddal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HamKam II
HamKam II
7/12/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 3OBOS-bana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brumunddal55%
×Draw20%
HamKam II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brumunddal
2.31
HamKam II
1.52

Brumunddal creates 52% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Brumunddal
2.08
HamKam II
1.62

allows per match

Brumunddal
1.42
HamKam II
2.54

finishing

Brumunddal+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brumunddal ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Brumunddal or draw
75%
Brumunddal or HamKam II
80%
Draw or HamKam II
45%

Winning margin

Brumunddal wins by 2+
34%
HamKam II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brumunddal 1+ goals
90%
Brumunddal 2+ goals
67%
Brumunddal 3+ goals
40%
HamKam II 1+ goals
78%
HamKam II 2+ goals
45%
HamKam II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Brumunddal (draw refunded)
69%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brumunddal at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brumunddal attack 2.08 + HamKam II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.31

HamKam II attack 1.62 + Brumunddal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brumunddal scores more
55%
level
20%
HamKam II scores more
25%

Brumunddal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brumunddal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brumunddal vs HamKam II

Brumunddal beat HamKam II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on July 12, 2023.

The match was played at OBOS-bana in Brumunddal.