Brumunddal vs Funnefoss / Vormsund

Brumunddal

CANC

14:00

Funnefoss / Vormsund

10/3/2020

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 9SH-banen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brumunddal71%

×Draw15%

Funnefoss / Vormsund14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrumunddalExpected goals in this matchFunnefoss / Vormsund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

1.30

Brumunddal

3.04

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.30

Brumunddal creates 134% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

3.43

creates per match

1.60

1.00

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Brumunddal

3.43

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.60

allows per match

Brumunddal

1.00

Funnefoss / Vormsund

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brumunddal+0.00on par

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brumunddal ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Brumunddal or draw

86%

Brumunddal or Funnefoss / Vormsund

85%

Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund

29%

Winning margin

Brumunddal wins by 2+

52%

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Brumunddal 1+ goals

95%

Brumunddal 2+ goals

80%

Brumunddal 3+ goals

57%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals

73%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals

37%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Brumunddal (draw refunded)

84%

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brumunddal at home — creates 3.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brumunddal attack 3.43 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 3.04

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.60 + Brumunddal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Brumunddal scores more

71%

level

15%

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more

14%

Brumunddal at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Brumunddal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff