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Brumov vs Viktorie Přerov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Brumov
Brumov
CANC
14:30
Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
5/2/20214. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 18Stadion FC Elseremo Brumov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Brumov42%
×Draw22%
Viktorie Přerov36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brumov
1.88
Viktorie Přerov
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 53 away

creates per match

Brumov
1.42
Viktorie Přerov
1.51

allows per match

Brumov
2.00
Viktorie Přerov
2.34

finishing

Brumov+0.00on par
Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brumov ↓

Viktorie Přerov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Brumov or draw
64%
Brumov or Viktorie Přerov
78%
Draw or Viktorie Přerov
58%

Winning margin

Brumov wins by 2+
22%
Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Brumov 1+ goals
85%
Brumov 2+ goals
56%
Brumov 3+ goals
29%
Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
83%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
52%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Brumov (draw refunded)
53%
Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brumov at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

Viktorie Přerov away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brumov attack 1.42 + Viktorie Přerov defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.88

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.51 + Brumov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brumov scores more
42%
level
22%
Viktorie Přerov scores more
36%

Brumov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brumov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brumov vs Viktorie Přerov — Match Preview

Brumov face Viktorie Přerov on May 2, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie E fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Brumov host Viktorie Přerov at Stadion FC Elseremo Brumov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.