Brühl 2–2 St. Gallen II: Result & Stats

Brühl

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

St. Gallen II

8/30/2023

1. Liga Promotion · Round 3Paul-Grüninger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Brühl49%

×Draw21%

St. Gallen II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrühlExpected goals in this matchSt. Gallen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.63

Brühl

2.11

St. Gallen II

1.63

Brühl creates 29% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 33 away

1.86

creates per match

1.73

1.53

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Brühl

1.86

St. Gallen II

1.73

allows per match

Brühl

1.53

St. Gallen II

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brühl+0.00on par

St. Gallen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brühl ↓

St. Gallen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Brühl or draw

70%

Brühl or St. Gallen II

79%

Draw or St. Gallen II

51%

Winning margin

Brühl wins by 2+

28%

St. Gallen II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Brühl 1+ goals

88%

Brühl 2+ goals

62%

Brühl 3+ goals

35%

St. Gallen II 1+ goals

80%

St. Gallen II 2+ goals

48%

St. Gallen II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Brühl (draw refunded)

62%

St. Gallen II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brühl at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

St. Gallen II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brühl attack 1.86 + St. Gallen II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.11

St. Gallen II attack 1.73 + Brühl defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brühl scores more

49%

level

21%

St. Gallen II scores more

30%

Brühl at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brühl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff