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Brühl vs Paradiso — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Brühl
Brühl
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Paradiso
Paradiso
11/9/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 16Paul-Grüninger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Brühl45%
×Draw25%
Paradiso30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brühl
1.60
Paradiso
1.27

Brühl creates 26% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 51 away

creates per match

Brühl
1.86
Paradiso
1.02

allows per match

Brühl
1.53
Paradiso
1.33

finishing

Brühl+0.00on par
Paradiso+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brühl ↓

Paradiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Brühl or draw
70%
Brühl or Paradiso
75%
Draw or Paradiso
55%

Winning margin

Brühl wins by 2+
23%
Paradiso wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Brühl 1+ goals
80%
Brühl 2+ goals
47%
Brühl 3+ goals
22%
Paradiso 1+ goals
72%
Paradiso 2+ goals
36%
Paradiso 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Brühl (draw refunded)
60%
Paradiso (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brühl at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

Paradiso away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brühl attack 1.86 + Paradiso defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Paradiso attack 1.02 + Brühl defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Brühl scores more
45%
level
25%
Paradiso scores more
30%

Brühl at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brühl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Brühl 2–0 Paradiso

Brühl beat Paradiso 2-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Paul-Grüninger-Stadion in St. Gallen.