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Bruck/Leitha vs First Vienna — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Bruck/Leitha
Bruck/Leitha
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
First Vienna
First Vienna
5/20/2022Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 24Parkstadion Bruck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bruck/Leitha22%
×Draw22%
First Vienna57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruck/Leitha
1.15
First Vienna
2.00

First Vienna creates 74% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bruck/Leitha
1.75
First Vienna
2.23

allows per match

Bruck/Leitha
1.78
First Vienna
0.54

finishing

Bruck/Leitha+0.00on par
First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruck/Leitha ↓

First Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bruck/Leitha or draw
43%
Bruck/Leitha or First Vienna
78%
Draw or First Vienna
78%

Winning margin

Bruck/Leitha wins by 2+
8%
First Vienna wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Bruck/Leitha 1+ goals
68%
Bruck/Leitha 2+ goals
32%
Bruck/Leitha 3+ goals
11%
First Vienna 1+ goals
86%
First Vienna 2+ goals
59%
First Vienna 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Bruck/Leitha (draw refunded)
27%
First Vienna (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruck/Leitha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

First Vienna away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruck/Leitha attack 1.75 + First Vienna defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.15

First Vienna attack 2.23 + Bruck/Leitha defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bruck/Leitha scores more
22%
level
22%
First Vienna scores more
57%

First Vienna at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Bruck/Leitha 0–0 First Vienna

Bruck/Leitha and First Vienna drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on May 20, 2022.

The match was played at Parkstadion Bruck in Bruck an der Leitha.