Bruck an der Mur 2–2 TuS Heiligenkreuz

Bruck an der Mur

FT

2 – 2

TuS Heiligenkreuz

10/11/2019

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 11Murinselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Bruck an der Mur47%

×Draw22%

TuS Heiligenkreuz32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bruck an der MurExpected goals in this matchTuS Heiligenkreuz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.64

Bruck an der Mur

2.01

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.64

Bruck an der Mur creates 23% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 72 away

1.92

creates per match

1.49

1.79

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Bruck an der Mur

1.92

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.49

allows per match

Bruck an der Mur

1.79

TuS Heiligenkreuz

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruck an der Mur ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Bruck an der Mur or draw

68%

Bruck an der Mur or TuS Heiligenkreuz

78%

Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz

53%

Winning margin

Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+

26%

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals

87%

Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals

59%

Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals

32%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

81%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

49%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)

59%

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruck an der Mur at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.79 · 73 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.92 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.01

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Bruck an der Mur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bruck an der Mur scores more

47%

level

22%

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

32%

Bruck an der Mur at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bruck an der Mur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff