Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bruck an der Mur vs Rottenmann — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Bruck an der Mur
Bruck an der Mur
CANC
17:00
Rottenmann
Rottenmann
5/12/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 25Murinselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bruck an der Mur50%
×Draw22%
Rottenmann28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruck an der Mur
2.04
Rottenmann
1.49

Bruck an der Mur creates 37% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bruck an der Mur
1.92
Rottenmann
1.19

allows per match

Bruck an der Mur
1.79
Rottenmann
2.15

finishing

Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par
Rottenmann+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruck an der Mur ↓

Rottenmann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bruck an der Mur or draw
72%
Bruck an der Mur or Rottenmann
78%
Draw or Rottenmann
50%

Winning margin

Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+
29%
Rottenmann wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals
87%
Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals
60%
Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals
33%
Rottenmann 1+ goals
77%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
44%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)
64%
Rottenmann (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruck an der Mur at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.79 · 73 matches

Rottenmann away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.92 + Rottenmann defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.04

Rottenmann attack 1.19 + Bruck an der Mur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bruck an der Mur scores more
50%
level
22%
Rottenmann scores more
28%

Bruck an der Mur at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bruck an der Mur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bruck an der Mur vs Rottenmann — Match Preview

Bruck an der Mur face Rottenmann on May 12, 2020 in this Landesliga - Steiermark fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bruck an der Mur host Rottenmann at Murinselstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.