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Bruchsal vs SV Linx — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bruchsal
Bruchsal
FT
0 – 2
SV Linx
SV Linx
8/7/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1Städtisches Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bruchsal43%
×Draw21%
SV Linx36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruchsal
1.99
SV Linx
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bruchsal
1.38
SV Linx
1.52

allows per match

Bruchsal
2.13
SV Linx
2.60

finishing

Bruchsal+0.00on par
SV Linx+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruchsal ↓

SV Linx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bruchsal or draw
64%
Bruchsal or SV Linx
79%
Draw or SV Linx
57%

Winning margin

Bruchsal wins by 2+
24%
SV Linx wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bruchsal 1+ goals
86%
Bruchsal 2+ goals
59%
Bruchsal 3+ goals
32%
SV Linx 1+ goals
84%
SV Linx 2+ goals
54%
SV Linx 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Bruchsal (draw refunded)
54%
SV Linx (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruchsal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

SV Linx away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruchsal attack 1.38 + SV Linx defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.99

SV Linx attack 1.52 + Bruchsal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bruchsal scores more
43%
level
21%
SV Linx scores more
36%

Bruchsal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bruchsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Bruchsal 0–2 SV Linx

SV Linx beat Bruchsal 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion in Bruchsal.