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Bruchsal vs Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bruchsal
Bruchsal
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
3/26/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 26Städtisches Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bruchsal39%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruchsal
1.79
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bruchsal
1.38
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.44

allows per match

Bruchsal
2.13
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
2.20

finishing

Bruchsal+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruchsal ↓

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bruchsal or draw
61%
Bruchsal or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
61%

Winning margin

Bruchsal wins by 2+
20%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bruchsal 1+ goals
83%
Bruchsal 2+ goals
53%
Bruchsal 3+ goals
26%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals
83%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals
53%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bruchsal (draw refunded)
50%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruchsal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruchsal attack 1.38 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.44 + Bruchsal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bruchsal scores more
39%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more
39%

Bruchsal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bruchsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bruchsal vs Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen beat Bruchsal 4-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion in Bruchsal.