Bruchsal 0–2 SGV Freiberg: Result & Stats

Bruchsal

FT

0 – 2

SGV Freiberg

9/30/2020

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 9Städtisches Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bruchsal13%

×Draw17%

SGV Freiberg70%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BruchsalExpected goals in this matchSGV Freiberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.60

Bruchsal

1.05

SGV Freiberg

2.60

SGV Freiberg creates 148% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

1.38

creates per match

3.08

2.13

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Bruchsal

1.38

SGV Freiberg

3.08

allows per match

Bruchsal

2.13

SGV Freiberg

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bruchsal+0.00on par

SGV Freiberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruchsal ↓

SGV Freiberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Bruchsal or draw

30%

Bruchsal or SGV Freiberg

83%

Draw or SGV Freiberg

87%

Winning margin

Bruchsal wins by 2+

5%

SGV Freiberg wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Bruchsal 1+ goals

65%

Bruchsal 2+ goals

28%

Bruchsal 3+ goals

9%

SGV Freiberg 1+ goals

92%

SGV Freiberg 2+ goals

73%

SGV Freiberg 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Bruchsal (draw refunded)

16%

SGV Freiberg (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruchsal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

SGV Freiberg away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruchsal attack 1.38 + SGV Freiberg defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.05

SGV Freiberg attack 3.08 + Bruchsal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bruchsal scores more

13%

level

17%

SGV Freiberg scores more

70%

SGV Freiberg at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "SGV Freiberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff