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Bruchsal vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bruchsal
Bruchsal
FT
2 – 2
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
9/1/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Städtisches Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bruchsal40%
×Draw23%
Freiburger FC37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruchsal
1.72
Freiburger FC
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 42 away

creates per match

Bruchsal
1.38
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Bruchsal
2.13
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Bruchsal+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruchsal ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bruchsal or draw
63%
Bruchsal or Freiburger FC
77%
Draw or Freiburger FC
60%

Winning margin

Bruchsal wins by 2+
21%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bruchsal 1+ goals
82%
Bruchsal 2+ goals
51%
Bruchsal 3+ goals
25%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
80%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
48%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bruchsal (draw refunded)
52%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruchsal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruchsal attack 1.38 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.72

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Bruchsal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bruchsal scores more
40%
level
23%
Freiburger FC scores more
37%

Bruchsal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bruchsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bruchsal vs Freiburger FC

Bruchsal and Freiburger FC drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 1, 2021.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion in Bruchsal.