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Bruchsal vs CFR Pforzheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bruchsal
Bruchsal
CANC
13:00
CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
5/29/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 39Städtisches Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bruchsal29%
×Draw22%
CFR Pforzheim48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruchsal
1.46
CFR Pforzheim
1.92

CFR Pforzheim creates 32% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 93 away

creates per match

Bruchsal
1.38
CFR Pforzheim
1.71

allows per match

Bruchsal
2.13
CFR Pforzheim
1.53

finishing

Bruchsal+0.00on par
CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruchsal ↓

CFR Pforzheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bruchsal or draw
52%
Bruchsal or CFR Pforzheim
78%
Draw or CFR Pforzheim
71%

Winning margin

Bruchsal wins by 2+
13%
CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bruchsal 1+ goals
77%
Bruchsal 2+ goals
43%
Bruchsal 3+ goals
18%
CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
85%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
57%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Bruchsal (draw refunded)
38%
CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruchsal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

CFR Pforzheim away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruchsal attack 1.38 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

CFR Pforzheim attack 1.71 + Bruchsal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bruchsal scores more
29%
level
22%
CFR Pforzheim scores more
48%

CFR Pforzheim at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bruchsal face CFR Pforzheim (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with Bruchsal hosting CFR Pforzheim. Match starts May 29, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bruchsal host CFR Pforzheim at Städtisches Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.