Broxburn Athletic 2–1 Nairn County: Result & Stats

Broxburn Athletic

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Nairn County

9/23/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundAlbyn Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Broxburn Athletic60%

×Draw19%

Nairn County20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Broxburn AthleticExpected goals in this matchNairn County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.29

Broxburn Athletic

2.34

Nairn County

1.29

Broxburn Athletic creates 81% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.29

creates per match

1.00

1.57

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Broxburn Athletic

2.29

Nairn County

1.00

allows per match

Broxburn Athletic

1.57

Nairn County

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broxburn Athletic+0.00on par

Nairn County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broxburn Athletic ↓

Nairn County →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Broxburn Athletic or draw

80%

Broxburn Athletic or Nairn County

81%

Draw or Nairn County

40%

Winning margin

Broxburn Athletic wins by 2+

39%

Nairn County wins by 2+

Team goals

Broxburn Athletic 1+ goals

90%

Broxburn Athletic 2+ goals

67%

Broxburn Athletic 3+ goals

41%

Nairn County 1+ goals

72%

Nairn County 2+ goals

37%

Nairn County 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Broxburn Athletic (draw refunded)

75%

Nairn County (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Broxburn Athletic at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Nairn County away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Broxburn Athletic attack 2.29 + Nairn County defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.34

Nairn County attack 1.00 + Broxburn Athletic defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Broxburn Athletic scores more

60%

level

19%

Nairn County scores more

20%

Broxburn Athletic at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Broxburn Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff