Broxburn Athletic 3–2 East Stirlingshire

Broxburn Athletic

FT

3 – 2

East Stirlingshire

9/21/2019

FA Cup · 1st RoundAlbyn Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Broxburn Athletic58%

×Draw19%

East Stirlingshire23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Broxburn AthleticExpected goals in this matchEast Stirlingshire

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.58

Broxburn Athletic

2.54

East Stirlingshire

1.58

Broxburn Athletic creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.29

creates per match

1.60

1.57

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Broxburn Athletic

2.29

East Stirlingshire

1.60

allows per match

Broxburn Athletic

1.57

East Stirlingshire

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broxburn Athletic+0.00on par

East Stirlingshire+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broxburn Athletic ↓

East Stirlingshire →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Broxburn Athletic or draw

77%

Broxburn Athletic or East Stirlingshire

81%

Draw or East Stirlingshire

42%

Winning margin

Broxburn Athletic wins by 2+

37%

East Stirlingshire wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Broxburn Athletic 1+ goals

92%

Broxburn Athletic 2+ goals

72%

Broxburn Athletic 3+ goals

46%

East Stirlingshire 1+ goals

79%

East Stirlingshire 2+ goals

47%

East Stirlingshire 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Broxburn Athletic (draw refunded)

71%

East Stirlingshire (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broxburn Athletic at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

East Stirlingshire away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broxburn Athletic attack 2.29 + East Stirlingshire defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.54

East Stirlingshire attack 1.60 + Broxburn Athletic defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Broxburn Athletic scores more

58%

level

19%

East Stirlingshire scores more

23%

Broxburn Athletic at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Broxburn Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff