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Brown DE Adrogue vs San Telmo — Primera Nacional 2026

Brown DE Adrogue
Brown DE Adrogue
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Telmo
San Telmo
3/15/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 7Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Brown DE Adrogue43%
×Draw29%
San Telmo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brown DE Adrogue
1.22
San Telmo
0.92

Brown DE Adrogue creates 33% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 99 away

creates per match

Brown DE Adrogue
0.99
San Telmo
0.87

allows per match

Brown DE Adrogue
0.97
San Telmo
1.45

finishing

Brown DE Adrogue+0.00on par
San Telmo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brown DE Adrogue ↓

San Telmo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Brown DE Adrogue or draw
72%
Brown DE Adrogue or San Telmo
71%
Draw or San Telmo
57%

Winning margin

Brown DE Adrogue wins by 2+
19%
San Telmo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brown DE Adrogue 1+ goals
70%
Brown DE Adrogue 2+ goals
34%
Brown DE Adrogue 3+ goals
12%
San Telmo 1+ goals
60%
San Telmo 2+ goals
23%
San Telmo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Brown DE Adrogue (draw refunded)
61%
San Telmo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brown DE Adrogue at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.97 · 100 matches

San Telmo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brown DE Adrogue attack 0.99 + San Telmo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.22

San Telmo attack 0.87 + Brown DE Adrogue defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brown DE Adrogue scores more
43%
level
29%
San Telmo scores more
28%

Brown DE Adrogue at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brown DE Adrogue will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Brown DE Adrogue 0–0 San Telmo

Brown DE Adrogue and San Telmo drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla in Almirante Brown, Provincia de Buenos Aires.