Brouch 1–7 Koeppchen: Result & Stats | Cup

Brouch

1 – 7

Koeppchen

9/12/2021

Cup · 1st RoundStade Feidt Frères

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brouch10%

×Draw11%

Koeppchen79%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrouchExpected goals in this matchKoeppchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

4.17

Brouch

1.56

Koeppchen

4.17

Koeppchen creates 167% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

4.00

4.33

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Brouch

1.33

Koeppchen

4.00

allows per match

Brouch

4.33

Koeppchen

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brouch+0.00on par

Koeppchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brouch ↓

Koeppchen →

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–35%

0–45%

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–47%

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

80%20%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

Brouch or draw

21%

Brouch or Koeppchen

89%

Draw or Koeppchen

90%

Winning margin

Brouch wins by 2+

Koeppchen wins by 2+

63%

Team goals

Brouch 1+ goals

79%

Brouch 2+ goals

46%

Brouch 3+ goals

21%

Koeppchen 1+ goals

98%

Koeppchen 2+ goals

91%

Koeppchen 3+ goals

75%

Draw no bet

Brouch (draw refunded)

11%

Koeppchen (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brouch at home — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Koeppchen away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brouch attack 1.33 + Koeppchen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Koeppchen attack 4.00 + Brouch defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 4.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Brouch scores more

10%

level

11%

Koeppchen scores more

79%

Koeppchen at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Koeppchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff