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Brouch vs Blo-Wäiss Izeg — Cup 2020

Brouch
Brouch
AET
3 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Blo-Wäiss Izeg
Blo-Wäiss Izeg
9/7/2024CupCup · 1st RoundStade Feidt Frères

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brouch12%
×Draw14%
Blo-Wäiss Izeg74%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brouch
1.33
Blo-Wäiss Izeg
3.33

Blo-Wäiss Izeg creates 150% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Brouch
1.33
Blo-Wäiss Izeg
2.33

allows per match

Brouch
4.33
Blo-Wäiss Izeg
1.33

finishing

Brouch+0.00on par
Blo-Wäiss Izeg+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brouch ↓

Blo-Wäiss Izeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Brouch or draw
26%
Brouch or Blo-Wäiss Izeg
86%
Draw or Blo-Wäiss Izeg
88%

Winning margin

Brouch wins by 2+
5%
Blo-Wäiss Izeg wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Brouch 1+ goals
74%
Brouch 2+ goals
38%
Brouch 3+ goals
15%
Blo-Wäiss Izeg 1+ goals
96%
Blo-Wäiss Izeg 2+ goals
84%
Blo-Wäiss Izeg 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Brouch (draw refunded)
14%
Blo-Wäiss Izeg (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brouch at home — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Blo-Wäiss Izeg away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brouch attack 1.33 + Blo-Wäiss Izeg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Blo-Wäiss Izeg attack 2.33 + Brouch defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Brouch scores more
12%
level
14%
Blo-Wäiss Izeg scores more
74%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Blo-Wäiss Izeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Brouch 3–5 Blo-Wäiss Izeg

Blo-Wäiss Izeg beat Brouch 5-3 in Cup on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Feidt Frères in Brouch.