Brora Rangers 1–0 Pollok: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Brora Rangers

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pollok

J. MacRae 34'

11/25/2023

FA Cup · 3rd RoundDudgeon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brora Rangers39%

×Draw27%

Pollok34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brora RangersExpected goals in this matchPollok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.20

Brora Rangers

1.31

Pollok

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.63

creates per match

1.40

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Brora Rangers

1.63

Pollok

1.40

allows per match

Brora Rangers

1.00

Pollok

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Pollok+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brora Rangers ↓

Pollok →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Brora Rangers or draw

66%

Brora Rangers or Pollok

73%

Draw or Pollok

61%

Winning margin

Brora Rangers wins by 2+

18%

Pollok wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Brora Rangers 1+ goals

73%

Brora Rangers 2+ goals

38%

Brora Rangers 3+ goals

14%

Pollok 1+ goals

70%

Pollok 2+ goals

34%

Pollok 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)

54%

Pollok (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brora Rangers at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Pollok away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brora Rangers attack 1.63 + Pollok defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pollok attack 1.40 + Brora Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brora Rangers scores more

39%

level

27%

Pollok scores more

34%

Brora Rangers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

J. MacRae↳ M. Ewan

67'

H. Kerr← R. McGregor

72'

S. Burns

82'

G. Anderson← A. Gallacher

83'

A. Forde

86'

M. McKenzie← D. Christie

86'

J. Nelson← L. Main

87'

P. Brindle← T. Dingwall

90+5'

M. McKenzie

90+2'

K. Macleod← J. MacRae

Brora

Pollok

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

MacRae

87'▲P. Brindle←▼T. Dingwall

90+2'▲K. Macleod←▼J. MacRae

Brora Rangers substitutes

23Brindle19Macleod21Gillan6Meekings16Wallace10Macrae3Macdonald

Manager: S. Maxwell

67'▲H. Kerr←▼R. McGregor

82'▲G. Anderson←▼A. Gallacher

86'▲M. McKenzie←▼D. Christie

86'▲J. Nelson←▼L. Main

Pollok substitutes

14Kerr15Anderson12McKenzie17Nelson16Duff18Burrows21Fry23Allan