Brora Rangers 1–1 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Brora Rangers

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cove Rangers

1/30/2024

FA Cup · 4th RoundDudgeon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brora Rangers51%

×Draw24%

Cove Rangers24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brora RangersExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.07

Brora Rangers

1.67

Cove Rangers

1.07

Brora Rangers creates 56% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.63

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Brora Rangers

1.63

Cove Rangers

1.14

allows per match

Brora Rangers

1.00

Cove Rangers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brora Rangers ↓

Cove Rangers →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Brora Rangers or draw

76%

Brora Rangers or Cove Rangers

76%

Draw or Cove Rangers

49%

Winning margin

Brora Rangers wins by 2+

28%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

Team goals

Brora Rangers 1+ goals

81%

Brora Rangers 2+ goals

50%

Brora Rangers 3+ goals

23%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

66%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

29%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)

68%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brora Rangers at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brora Rangers attack 1.63 + Cove Rangers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cove Rangers attack 1.14 + Brora Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brora Rangers scores more

51%

level

24%

Cove Rangers scores more

24%

Brora Rangers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff