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Brora Rangers vs Berwick Rangers — FA Cup 2019

Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Berwick Rangers
Berwick Rangers
9/23/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundDudgeon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brora Rangers58%
×Draw21%
Berwick Rangers20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brora Rangers
2.01
Berwick Rangers
1.10

Brora Rangers creates 83% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Brora Rangers
1.63
Berwick Rangers
1.20

allows per match

Brora Rangers
1.00
Berwick Rangers
2.40

finishing

Brora Rangers+0.00on par
Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brora Rangers ↓

Berwick Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Brora Rangers or draw
80%
Brora Rangers or Berwick Rangers
79%
Draw or Berwick Rangers
42%

Winning margin

Brora Rangers wins by 2+
35%
Berwick Rangers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brora Rangers 1+ goals
87%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
59%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
32%
Berwick Rangers 1+ goals
67%
Berwick Rangers 2+ goals
30%
Berwick Rangers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
74%
Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brora Rangers at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Berwick Rangers away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brora Rangers attack 1.63 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Berwick Rangers attack 1.20 + Brora Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Brora Rangers scores more
58%
level
21%
Berwick Rangers scores more
20%

Brora Rangers at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Brora Rangers 5–1 Berwick Rangers

Brora Rangers beat Berwick Rangers 5-1 in FA Cup on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Dudgeon Park in Brora.