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Brooklyn vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Brooklyn
Brooklyn
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
3/8/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageMaimonides Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brooklyn40%
×Draw28%
Indy Eleven32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brooklyn
1.22
Indy Eleven
1.05

Brooklyn creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 130 away

creates per match

Brooklyn
0.86
Indy Eleven
1.10

allows per match

Brooklyn
1.00
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Brooklyn+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brooklyn ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Brooklyn or draw
68%
Brooklyn or Indy Eleven
72%
Draw or Indy Eleven
60%

Winning margin

Brooklyn wins by 2+
17%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brooklyn 1+ goals
70%
Brooklyn 2+ goals
34%
Brooklyn 3+ goals
12%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
65%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
28%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brooklyn (draw refunded)
56%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brooklyn at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brooklyn attack 0.86 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + Brooklyn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brooklyn scores more
40%
level
28%
Indy Eleven scores more
32%

Brooklyn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brooklyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Brooklyn 1–0 Indy Eleven

Brooklyn beat Indy Eleven 1-0 in USL Championship on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Maimonides Park.