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Brondby vs FC Fredericia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Brondby
Brondby
FT
9 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia
1/26/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Brøndby IF's anlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Brondby62%
×Draw19%
FC Fredericia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brondby
2.37
FC Fredericia
1.24

Brondby creates 91% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Brondby
3.14
FC Fredericia
1.27

allows per match

Brondby
1.21
FC Fredericia
1.60

finishing

Brondby+0.00on par
FC Fredericia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brondby ↓

FC Fredericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Brondby or draw
81%
Brondby or FC Fredericia
81%
Draw or FC Fredericia
38%

Winning margin

Brondby wins by 2+
40%
FC Fredericia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Brondby 1+ goals
91%
Brondby 2+ goals
68%
Brondby 3+ goals
42%
FC Fredericia 1+ goals
71%
FC Fredericia 2+ goals
35%
FC Fredericia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Brondby (draw refunded)
77%
FC Fredericia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brondby at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

FC Fredericia away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brondby attack 3.14 + FC Fredericia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.37

FC Fredericia attack 1.27 + Brondby defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Brondby scores more
62%
level
19%
FC Fredericia scores more
19%

Brondby at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Brondby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brondby vs FC Fredericia

Brondby beat FC Fredericia 9-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 26, 2024.

The match was played at Brøndby IF's anlæg in Brøndby.